Howard marks taught me a lot in this book. But I have to say the book is Naggy, he nags a lot and repeats alot. But maybe it is a good thing to drill the key points into our heads. Yes I recommend!
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Popular Highlights in this book
“What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end.”Highlighted by 1,169 Kindle readers- The events in the life of a cycle shouldn’t be viewed merely as each being followed by the next, but — much more importantly — as each causing the next.Highlighted by 1,082 Kindle readers
- Warren Buffett once told me about his two criteria for a desirable piece of information: it has to be important, and it has to be knowable.Highlighted by 943 Kindle readers
From the Publisher
A Note to Readers from Howard Marks, author of Mastering the Market Cycle
Investors clearly could do much better if they knew what lies ahead. But they can’t. Few people can accurately predict what the future holds in store for the economy and markets, and fewer still know enough about these things to out-think and thus out-invest the general consensus of investors whose views are incorporated into – 'discounted by' – the market prices of securities. But we know economies and markets follow an up-and-down pattern called a cycle and, importantly, knowing where we currently stand with regard to the economic cycle and the market cycle can give us a better idea of what lies ahead. This is a process through which investors can get the odds on their side.
When the economy is just beginning to recover from a slowdown and the markets are picking themselves up off the floor after a bust, it’s highly likely that security prices haven’t been lifted to precarious levels by large doses of investor optimism.
Pleasant surprises are more likely to lie ahead than disappointments; investors will probably come to be persuaded of these things over time and thus become buyers; and their buying should cause security prices to rise. At such a point – when economies and markets are low in their cycles – good things are more likely to lie ahead than bad things.
Since security prices aren’t inflated, buying at that point is likely to make for significant appreciation and entail little risk.
And on the contrary, when the recovery and bull market have been rolling for a while, investors are likely to be feeling good, and their optimism is likely to be incorporated in security prices.
Thus prices may be at risky highs; disappointments are more likely to lie ahead than good news; and thus risk may be high and appreciation hard to come by. All these things mean that when we’re high in the cycle, the odds are against you. When others feel good and drive prices to highs, it’s time to cut risk and take some of your money off the table.
In all these things, the operative words are 'likely' and probable.' So while we can’t know what the future holds, we can have a better idea whether the wind is at our back or in our face. The best investors have a sense for where we stand in the cycle and thus whether it’s time to build more aggressiveness or more defensiveness into their portfolios. This book will teach you what cycles are, what causes their rise and fall, and thus how to tell what investment moves are most likely to succeed.
About the author
Pristine—not a wrinkle on dust jacket, nice bookmark included free.
This book arrived in a strong vinyl wrapping envelope, which is standard. However, the packaging and presentation stand out: There was a snug layer of bubble wrap, which had an opening on one end, with adhesive closure, so it was easy to open. The book is in pristine, brand-new condition—to include not a wrinkle on the dust jacket. The nicest touch is the quality bookmark which was in an envelope inside the wrapping. (In the photo, it’s the shiny gold heavy card stock “BOOK” with a gold tassle. Life of Riley Pvt. Lmt. does a fabulous job.
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Top reviews from other countries
- Jorge FortesReviewed in Mexico on November 7, 2023
Must read, enriching and enjoying contemporary business, economic and financial literature.
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